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Forecast Track Record
Every forecast we publish gets tracked and scored. We use Brier scores (lower is better, 0 = perfect) to measure calibration. No cherry-picking. Full transparency.
Total Forecasts
200
Resolved
35
Tactical Brier
0.262
49% hit rate vs 50% coin flip (17/35)
Strategic Brier
—
Tactical
190
Total
35
Resolved
17
Correct
Avg Brier: 0.262 · Hit rate: 49% vs 50% coin flip — below chance, no demonstrated edge on direction
Strategic
10
Total
0
Resolved
0
Correct
No resolved forecasts yet
Hit rate = share of resolved forecasts where the predicted direction matched the outcome. The reference is a coin flip at 50%: a directional hit rate below 50% shows no demonstrated edge on direction — consistent with our own finding that 24-hour price direction is not reliably predictable.
Detailed forecast-by-forecast results are available for STANDARD+ subscribers.
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