Every forecast we publish gets tracked and scored. We use Brier scores (lower is better, 0 = perfect) to measure calibration. No cherry-picking. Full transparency.
Total Forecasts
200
Resolved
58
Tactical Brier
0.266
40% hit rate (21/53)
Strategic Brier
0.294
20% hit rate (1/5)
Structural Brier
—
Tactical
160
Total
53
Resolved
21
Correct
Avg Brier: 0.266 · Hit rate: 40%
Strategic
20
Total
5
Resolved
1
Correct
Avg Brier: 0.294 · Hit rate: 20%
Structural
20
Total
0
Resolved
0
Correct
No resolved forecasts yet
Detailed forecast-by-forecast results are available for STANDARD+ subscribers.