Which countries are stable, and which are cracking
40 countries that matter for markets — the big economies, the energy producers, the geopolitical flashpoints. Each one is scored across four dimensions that historically precede crises: political stability, economic stress, governance quality, and news-cycle tone.
Countries tracked
40
Data year: 2024
Median risk
40/100
World below long-term average
High-risk countries
4
Overall score ≥ 60
Trending worse
11
vs 2023
Active conflict monitoring
Source: ACLED + UCDP GED
Live conflict-event feed (ACLED + UCDP GED) is wired into the pipeline but awaiting API credentials. Once the feed activates, this band will surface countries with elevated real-world violence in rolling 90-day windows — independent of the slower structural indicators below.
How these scores are built
Each country gets four sub-scores on a 0-100 scale (higher = riskier):
Political — World Bank Political Stability index + V-Dem regime type.
Governance — World Bank governance indicators (effectiveness, rule of law, corruption).
News tone — GDELT global news-media tone average + volatility.
Overall risk = 30% political + 25% economic + 25% governance + 20% news tone. Data is annual, latest available year; trend compares the latest year to the prior year. Sources: World Bank (WGI, WDI), V-Dem Institute, GDELT 2.0. Updated monthly.
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Unlock the breakdown. STANDARD+ adds the 4-dimension risk view (political / economic / governance / news tone) on every country, so you can see why a score moves, not just that it moves.
This page shows slow risk — where cracks are forming. The 90-day forecast shows fast risk — the scheduled events that convert that stress into market moves.