Structural — 6-12 Months

Gold will likely trade sideways over the next 12 months as markets debate the pace of US rate cuts — if the Fed signals relief at Jackson Hole (mid-July) and follows through in late 2026, gold should climb 5–10%; if inflation surprises sticky and the Fed holds rates elevated, downside to $3,750–$3,850 is real. Real interest rates (what you earn after inflation) are currently elevated around 2.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC

Oil should stay in the $70–$75 range over the next 12 months — neither a clear rally nor a crash, but guided by geopolitical supply risks in the Middle East that underpin a price floor around $68–70. The Middle East conflict has cost ~1 billion barrels of cumulative production, and threats to the Strait of Hormuz keep upside risk alive.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC

Agricultural markets are splitting along fundamental lines. Wheat faces harvest-season supply pressure this summer, a seasonal dynamic that erases geopolitical premiums built during the Black Sea disruption.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC

Water sits at the intersection of every stress point surfacing in this cycle. The agricultural rally driven by hot fields and dollar weakness directly intensifies water demand — crop irrigation accounts for ~70% of global freshwater use.... Read more

Valid until 30 Jul UTC

The S&P 500 will likely stay flat to up 3% by year-end, with the next few weeks turbulent as the Federal Reserve speaks. Stocks rallied 13 points last week despite warning signs from price charts, suggesting investors are panic-selling out of extreme fear rather than betting on a real recovery.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC

The global security landscape is deteriorating structurally across three concurrent theaters — and that's historically rare. Ukraine's war has entered a new attritional phase where the front lines barely move but Ukraine's deep-strike drone capability now reaches the Urals, escalating the conflict's strategic character even as it stalemates tactically.... Read more

Valid until 30 Jul UTC

Energy and food systems face structural collision over 12 months as supply shocks, demand surge, and water scarcity compete. Geopolitical losses (Ukraine refineries, Middle East tensions) and AI power demand (+10x grid growth) collide with a $1.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC

Global recession risk sits in a fragile soft-landing window. The VIX at 16.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC

Geopolitical risk is accelerating across three fronts: Ukraine-Russia energy conflict deepening through drone strikes and sanctions evasion (Russia's reflagged dark fleet expanding Arctic LNG exports), US regulatory environment becoming more hostile to business after Supreme Court's Humphrey's Executor ruling, and electoral volatility in major US cities shifting policy progressively left. Russia's successful LNG expansion despite Western sanctions demonstrates sanctions-regime failure, pushing Moscow deeper into China-India alignment and fragmenting the multilateral order.... Read more

Valid until 4 Oct UTC