Economic Forecast

Economic Risk

GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, debt levels, reserves, current account, and income inequality.

Countries scored
206
Data year: 2025
Median risk
5.0/10
Above global average
High risk
32
Score >= 6.0
Critical
3
Score >= 7.5
Deteriorating
4
Rising vs last year
Macro Stress Fiscal Vulnerability Monetary Risk Structural Imbalance

Economic Powers (GDP PPP)

Top 12 economies by GDP PPP (IMF 2026) — the nations whose monetary policy, trade flows, and fiscal health drive global markets.

#CountryScoreLevelTrend
1United Kingdom5.6/10elevated
2United States5.6/10elevated
3Turkey5.4/10elevated
4Brazil5.1/10elevated
5France4.9/10elevated
6Italy4.7/10elevated
7Germany4.4/10moderate
8Indonesia4.4/10moderate
9India4.3/10moderate
10China3.4/10moderate
11Japan3.4/10moderate
12Russia3.1/10moderate
Sort by:
#CountryScoreLevelTrendTop Driver
1Lebanon8.0/10criticalMonetary Risk: 9.6/10
2Palestine7.9/10criticalMacro Stress: 9.9/10
3New Caledonia7.5/10criticalMacro Stress: 9.3/10
4Mozambique7.4/10highFiscal Vulnerability: 9.3/10
5Yemen7.1/10highMacro Stress: 7.7/10
6Sudan6.9/10highMacro Stress: 8.3/10
7South Sudan6.8/10highMacro Stress: 9.6/10
8Timor-Leste6.8/10highMonetary Risk: 9.7/10
9Palau6.7/10highMonetary Risk: 10.0/10
10Republic of the Congo6.6/10highStructural Imbalance: 8.3/10
11Dominica6.6/10highMonetary Risk: 9.8/10
12Montenegro6.6/10highMonetary Risk: 8.6/10
13Namibia6.6/10highMonetary Risk: 8.1/10
14Sierra Leone6.6/10highStructural Imbalance: 8.4/10
15Equatorial Guinea6.5/10highStructural Imbalance: 7.9/10
16Senegal6.5/10highMonetary Risk: 8.9/10
17Eswatini6.5/10highMacro Stress: 9.5/10
18Argentina6.4/10highMacro Stress: 9.9/10
19Malawi6.4/10highMonetary Risk: 8.8/10
20Mongolia6.3/10highMonetary Risk: 7.4/10
21Saint Vincent and the Grenadines6.3/10highMonetary Risk: 8.6/10
22Rwanda6.2/10highMonetary Risk: 7.9/10
23South Africa6.2/10highMacro Stress: 8.8/10
24Burundi6.1/10highMonetary Risk: 8.4/10
25Botswana6.1/10highMacro Stress: 8.5/10
26Gabon6.1/10highStructural Imbalance: 7.2/10
27French Polynesia6.1/10highMacro Stress: 6.8/10
28Somalia6.1/10highStructural Imbalance: 8.8/10
29Curaçao6.0/10highMonetary Risk: 9.0/10
30Micronesia6.0/10highMacro Stress: 6.0/10
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See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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