Economic Forecast

Economic Risk

GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, debt levels, foreign reserves, and current account balance combined into a forward economic stress score.

Countries scored

207

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.0/10

Above global average

High risk

Score ≥ 6.0

Critical

Score ≥ 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Macro Stress Fiscal Vulnerability Monetary Risk Structural Imbalance

Economic Powers (GDP PPP)

Top 12 economies by GDP PPP (IMF 2026) — the nations whose monetary policy, trade flows, and fiscal health drive global markets.

Economic Powers (GDP PPP)
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	United Kingdom	5.6/10	elevated	→
2	United States	5.5/10	elevated	→
3	Brazil	5.2/10	elevated	→
4	Turkey	5.2/10	elevated	→
5	France	4.9/10	elevated	→
6	Italy	4.6/10	elevated	→
7	Germany	4.4/10	moderate	→
8	Indonesia	4.3/10	moderate	→
9	India	4.0/10	moderate	→
10	Russia	3.5/10	moderate	→
11	Japan	3.4/10	moderate	→
12	China	3.2/10	moderate	→

Sort by:

Economic risk by country
#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Lebanon	8.2/10	critical	→	Monetary Risk: 9.4/10
2	Equatorial Guinea	7.8/10	critical	↑	Structural Imbalance: 7.9/10
3	New Caledonia	7.8/10	critical	→	Macro Stress: 9.7/10
4	Mozambique	7.6/10	critical	→	Fiscal Vulnerability: 9.4/10
5	Suriname	7.1/10	high	↑	Monetary Risk: 10.0/10
6	Yemen	7.1/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 7.7/10
7	South Sudan	6.8/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 9.7/10
8	Montenegro	6.7/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.8/10
9	Namibia	6.7/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 7.7/10
10	Republic of the Congo	6.6/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 8.3/10
11	Dominica	6.6/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 9.8/10
12	Eswatini	6.5/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 9.4/10
13	Argentina	6.4/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 9.9/10
14	Malawi	6.4/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.6/10
15	French Polynesia	6.4/10	high	↑	Macro Stress: 7.2/10
16	Senegal	6.4/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.7/10
17	Angola	6.3/10	high	↑	Structural Imbalance: 8.6/10
18	Gabon	6.3/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 7.3/10
19	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	6.3/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 8.2/10
20	Burundi	6.2/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 7.8/10
21	Micronesia	6.2/10	high	↑	Macro Stress: 6.3/10
22	Sierra Leone	6.2/10	high	↓	Structural Imbalance: 8.4/10
23	Somalia	6.2/10	high	→	Structural Imbalance: 8.9/10
24	South Africa	6.2/10	high	↓	Macro Stress: 8.9/10
25	Mongolia	6.1/10	high	→	Fiscal Vulnerability: 7.3/10
26	Palestine	6.1/10	high	↓	Monetary Risk: 8.2/10
27	Haiti	6.0/10	high	→	Macro Stress: 8.6/10
28	Palau	6.0/10	high	↑	Monetary Risk: 9.9/10
29	Rwanda	6.0/10	high	→	Monetary Risk: 7.5/10
30	Ukraine	6.0/10	high	↑	Monetary Risk: 6.6/10

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See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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