Geopolitical Forecast

Geopolitical Risk

Political stability, regime type, conflict proximity, sanctions exposure, and news sentiment across 250 countries.

Countries scored

214

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.0/10

Above global average

High risk

Score >= 6.0

Critical

Score >= 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Regime Stability Conflict Proximity Social Pressure Governance Deficit

Geopolitical Powers

Nations that shape the global order — permanent UNSC members, nuclear states, and regional hegemons whose foreign policy decisions ripple worldwide.

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Iran	8.2/10	critical	→
2	Turkey	6.8/10	high	→
3	China	6.7/10	high	→
4	Russia	6.5/10	high	→
5	Israel	6.1/10	high	→
6	India	5.9/10	elevated	→
7	Brazil	5.0/10	elevated	→
8	United States	4.2/10	moderate	↑
9	France	3.0/10	moderate	→
10	United Kingdom	3.0/10	moderate	→
11	Germany	2.4/10	low	↓
12	Japan	2.1/10	low	→

Upcoming Events

Scheduled events in this category with AI-generated scenario analysis.

5 Jun 2026 UTC · in 2dOPEC+ Ministerial Meeting

7 Jun 2026 UTC · in 4dG7 Summit

15 Jun 2026 UTC · in 12dUK General Election Debates

See all forecasts →

Sort by:

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Yemen	8.9/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 9.2/10
2	Sudan	8.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.8/10
3	South Sudan	8.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.1/10
4	Syria	8.4/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
5	Chad	8.4/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 8.8/10
6	Iran	8.2/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.9/10
7	Somalia	8.2/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
8	Afghanistan	8.1/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
9	Myanmar	8.1/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
10	Mali	7.9/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.9/10
11	Libya	7.8/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.6/10
12	Niger	7.8/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.5/10
13	DR Congo	7.7/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
14	Palestine	7.7/10	critical	→	Social Pressure: 8.2/10
15	Burkina Faso	7.6/10	critical	→	Regime Stability: 8.7/10
16	Central African Republic	7.5/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
17	Ethiopia	7.5/10	critical	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
18	Haiti	7.5/10	critical	→	Governance Deficit: 8.5/10
19	Cameroon	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.1/10
20	Iraq	7.4/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.0/10
21	Burundi	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 8.4/10
22	Eritrea	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
23	Pakistan	7.3/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 7.9/10
24	Uganda	7.3/10	high	→	Conflict Proximity: 7.7/10
25	Venezuela	7.3/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 9.0/10
26	Bangladesh	7.2/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.4/10
27	Republic of the Congo	7.2/10	high	→	Conflict Proximity: 8.6/10
28	Guinea	7.2/10	high	→	Regime Stability: 8.1/10
29	Guinea-Bissau	7.1/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 7.8/10
30	Mozambique	7.1/10	high	→	Governance Deficit: 7.8/10

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This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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