Military Forecast

Military Risk

Active conflict fatalities, regional contagion from neighbors, strategic geographic vulnerability.

Countries scored

212

Data year: 2025

Median risk

5.1/10

Above global average

High risk

Score >= 6.0

Critical

Score >= 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Active Conflict Arms Buildup Regional Contagion Strategic Vulnerability

Nuclear & Strategic Military Powers

The 9 nuclear-armed states plus key force-projecting nations — countries whose military posture shapes global security.

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Israel	8.0/10	critical	→
2	Pakistan	7.3/10	high	→
3	North Korea	7.0/10	high	↑
4	Russia	7.0/10	high	→
5	Turkey	6.6/10	high	→
6	India	5.5/10	elevated	→
7	China	5.2/10	elevated	→
8	United States	5.2/10	elevated	→
9	France	4.8/10	elevated	→
10	United Kingdom	4.3/10	moderate	→
11	South Korea	4.1/10	moderate	→
12	Japan	3.4/10	moderate	→

Sort by:

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Yemen	8.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.3/10
2	Sudan	8.8/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.1/10
3	Syria	8.8/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
4	Myanmar	8.2/10	critical	→	Arms Buildup: 8.6/10
5	Israel	8.0/10	critical	→	Arms Buildup: 9.3/10
6	Libya	8.0/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.6/10
7	Afghanistan	7.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.8/10
8	Palestine	7.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.8/10
9	Iran	7.7/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.3/10
10	Mali	7.7/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
11	Burkina Faso	7.6/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
12	South Sudan	7.6/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
13	DR Congo	7.4/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
14	Somalia	7.4/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.2/10
15	Chad	7.4/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
16	Central African Republic	7.3/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
17	Iraq	7.3/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.2/10
18	Pakistan	7.3/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.2/10
19	Ukraine	7.3/10	high	→	Arms Buildup: 10.0/10
20	Niger	7.2/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
21	Cuba	7.0/10	high	↑	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.5/10
22	Lebanon	7.0/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.0/10
23	North Korea	7.0/10	high	↑	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.4/10
24	Russia	7.0/10	high	→	Arms Buildup: 8.7/10
25	Algeria	6.8/10	high	↑	Arms Buildup: 9.1/10
26	Nigeria	6.8/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
27	Burundi	6.7/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 7.3/10
28	Haiti	6.7/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.3/10
29	Senegal	6.7/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.6/10
30	Republic of the Congo	6.6/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10

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This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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