Military Forecast

Military Risk

Active conflict fatalities, regional contagion from neighbors, strategic geographic vulnerability.

Countries scored

212

Data year: 2025

Median risk

4.9/10

Below global average

High risk

Score >= 6.0

Critical

Score >= 7.5

Deteriorating

Rising vs last year

Active Conflict Arms Buildup Regional Contagion Strategic Vulnerability

Nuclear & Strategic Military Powers

The 9 nuclear-armed states plus key force-projecting nations — countries whose military posture shapes global security.

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend
1	Israel	7.9/10	critical	→
2	Pakistan	7.4/10	high	→
3	Russia	7.1/10	high	→
4	North Korea	6.9/10	high	↑
5	Turkey	6.6/10	high	→
6	India	5.5/10	elevated	→
7	China	5.2/10	elevated	→
8	France	4.7/10	elevated	→
9	United States	4.7/10	elevated	→
10	South Korea	4.1/10	moderate	→
11	United Kingdom	4.0/10	moderate	→
12	Japan	3.3/10	moderate	→

Upcoming Events

Scheduled events in this category with AI-generated scenario analysis.

May 4, 2026 · in 15dUkraine-Russia Front Line Review (Analyst Consensus Window)

May 28, 2026 · in 39dTaiwan Strait Military Exercise Window (PLA)

See all forecasts →

Sort by:

#	Country	Score	Level	Trend	Top Driver
1	Sudan	8.9/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.1/10
2	Syria	8.8/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
3	Yemen	8.8/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.1/10
4	Myanmar	8.1/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.1/10
5	Afghanistan	7.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.7/10
6	Israel	7.9/10	critical	→	Arms Buildup: 9.3/10
7	Libya	7.9/10	critical	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.6/10
8	Palestine	7.9/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.8/10
9	Iran	7.7/10	critical	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.2/10
10	Mali	7.7/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
11	Burkina Faso	7.6/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
12	South Sudan	7.6/10	critical	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
13	Pakistan	7.4/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.6/10
14	Chad	7.4/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
15	Central African Republic	7.3/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
16	DR Congo	7.3/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.0/10
17	Iraq	7.3/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 8.3/10
18	Niger	7.3/10	high	→	Regional Contagion: 8.6/10
19	Somalia	7.3/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.2/10
20	Ukraine	7.3/10	high	→	Arms Buildup: 10.0/10
21	Algeria	7.1/10	high	↑	Arms Buildup: 9.1/10
22	Russia	7.1/10	high	→	Arms Buildup: 8.7/10
23	Burundi	7.0/10	high	↑	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.4/10
24	Lebanon	6.9/10	high	↓	Active Conflict Intensity: 7.8/10
25	North Korea	6.9/10	high	↑	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.4/10
26	Senegal	6.9/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 9.9/10
27	Venezuela	6.8/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 8.7/10
28	Eritrea	6.7/10	high	↑	Strategic Vulnerability: 7.8/10
29	Haiti	6.7/10	high	→	Strategic Vulnerability: 9.3/10
30	Cuba	6.6/10	high	→	Active Conflict Intensity: 6.9/10

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See the full picture

This is one of five risk dimensions. Visit the Risk Dashboard to see all five dimensions together, or check the Country Risk Radar for individual country deep-dives.

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